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Indian Telecom:Bharti gets to pole position in the consolidation race

类型:行业研究  机构:德意志银行   研究员:德意志银行研究所  日期:2017-10-20
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Bharti buys Tata’s mobile business, sector consolidation largely over now.

    Bharti will take over the customers and assets including spectrum of TataTeleservices’ consumer mobile business in a debt-free/cash-free deal. Bhartiwould partially assume Tata’s deferred spectrum liability of around Rs 75bnand some Tata employees post an optimization exercise. The deal will addaround 35.4m active subs and 5% rev-share to Bharti (current 271.5mn subs,32.5% rev-share) and bolsters Bharti spectrum portfolio. Coupled with itsrecent acquisition of Telenor India (2.5%), Bharti is likely to reach a rev-share of39-40% and possess a market-leading spectrum portfolio. Our target price isDCF-based. At the current price, Bharti’s India business trades at 6.5xassuming 5x FY19E EV/EBITDA for Africa operations.

    Don’t miss the forest for the trees, Reiterate Bharti as BUY (TP Rs 480).

    At end-1QFY18, we estimate the mobile rev-shares of other operators as:Vodafone India (22.5%), Idea (20%), RCOM (4%), Aircel (5%), Jio (2.5%) andBSNL/MTNL (5%). We reiterate our central thesis on Bharti

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