设正点财经为首页     加入收藏
首 页 财经新闻 主力数据 财经视频 研究报告 证券软件 内参传闻 股市学院 指标公式
你的位置: > 正点财经 > 研究报告 > 正文

U.S.Equity Strategy:Higher Rates,Higher Valuations

类型:投资策略  机构:瑞士信贷银行股份有限公司   研究员:瑞士信贷银行研究所  日期:2017-11-17
http://www.zdcj.net      点击收藏此报告
    

Expectations are for a Fed hike in December and for a tight labor market to putupward pressure on longer-term rates. This, along with changes at the Fed, israising investor concerns that higher yields will impede the market’s advance.

    Conventional wisdom holds that rising rates threaten equity valuations. Bycontrast, the data shows that when yields are depressed—as they are today—stock prices and interest rates move in tandem.

    The question, then, is at what point rising rates become a burden.

    As Figure 1 shows, P/Es have historically moved higher until the 10-yearTreasury reaches 5%. However, the research presented in this note showsthat this tipping point has likely fallen to 3?%, in response to the currentslower-growth environment. With Treasury yields below 2?% today, thisimplies that stock valuations will not be challenged by rising rates for quitesome time.

    While investors typically focus on the effect of the Fed’s actions on stockprices, changes in longer-dated Treasuries have a far greater impact. Further,the correlation between Fed Funds and multiples has largely broken downsince the introduction of uber-accommodative policy in 2008.

相关报告:
热点推荐:
更多最新研究报告
更多财经新闻
  • 如果不能阅读报告,请点击下载阅读器
关于我们 | 商务合作 | 联系投稿 | 联系删稿 | 合作伙伴 | 法律声明 | 网站地图