设正点财经为首页     加入收藏
首 页 财经新闻 主力数据 财经视频 研究报告 证券软件 内参传闻 股市学院 指标公式
你的位置: > 正点财经 > 研究报告 > 正文

Malaysia Strategy:Economic Report 2016/17,highlights

类型:投资策略  机构:麦格理证券股份有限公司   研究员:麦格理证券研究所  日期:2016-11-09
http://www.zdcj.net      点击收藏此报告
    

Highlights from MOF’s Economic Report 2016/17, released in conjunction withBudget 2017 (Budget 2017: a (very) broad audience), appear to forewarn onpotential macro slippage re government debt and GDP growth. Coupled withfiscal short-termism favouring operating over development expenditure and abarely positive current account, the governments’ window for holding the nextgeneral elections (GE14) ahead of the potential crystallisation of economicallydisruptive macro risks appears to be narrowing. As flagged in our July 2H16strategy outlook (Snap election driver), we reiterate expectation GE14 will becalled into 2Q17. We anticipate GLC restructuring / GLIC activism momentumin the run-up (GLIC activism will hasten GLC reboot) to support equity marketupside. Our top GLC picks are Tenaga, Telekom, Maybank, CIMB and SimeDarby, with mid-caps of interest including MyEG, MRCB, Felda and DRB.

    Debt/GDP really 49%? Sustained deficit spending means a Jan 2016 transferof liabilities to the Public Sector Home Financing Board (LPPSA), which paredheadline debt/GDP ratio by 1.8ppts (see fig 1), is only short-term relief. It wasclarified various legislations (Acts 637 and 275) set the debt ceiling at 55% but“debt” is defined as outstanding MGS, MGII and MITB only; hence, such debttotalled 48.5% of GDP at end-June 2016, c.5ppts lower than headline 53.2%.

    Fiscal sustainability/BR1M: the relentless increase in the share of operatingexpenditure, from a total 52% in 2015 to a forecast record 60% in 2017, goingto the 1.6m-strong civil service (via emoluments and pensions) and to debtservicing, appears unsustainable and is at the price of capping more utilitariandevelopment spending. Annual BR1M cash transfers seem an economic andpolitical bargain by comparison, paid quarterly and with the RM6.8bn spendallocated for 2017 to benefit 7mn recipients (25% of the population; figs 3-4).

    China drag risk: noting downside risk from largest trading partner China (fig5) transitioning to a “new normal” of slower growth as it moves away from anexport / investment-driven model to domestic services and consumption, theMOF cited an IMF study estimating every 1ppt decline in China’s GDP growthwould impact Malaysia’s GDP growth by 0.3ppts. Positively mitigating wouldbe Chinese FDI and funding support e.g. RM55bn soft loans for the ECRL.

    Housing: underscoring the fact that affordable housing shortage is not due tolack of housing programmes (fig 6

璧炲姪鍟嗛摼鎺�
   
  • 如果不能阅读报告,请点击下载阅读器
关于我们 | 商务合作 | 联系投稿 | 联系删稿 | 合作伙伴 | 法律声明 | 网站地图
濮濓絿鍋g純鎴e偍缂侊拷婢圭増妲戦敂鐗堝鏉炲€熺カ鐠侇垯绮庢禒锝堛€冩担婊嗏偓鍛嚋娴滈缚顫囬悙骞库偓鍌欑瑝娣囨繆鐦夌拠銉や繆閹垽绱欓崠鍛娴e棔绗夐梽鎰艾閺傚洤鐡ч妴浣规殶閹诡喖寮烽崶鍓у閿涘鍙忛柈銊﹀灗閼板懘鍎撮崚鍡楀敶鐎瑰湱娈戦崙鍡欌€橀幀褋鈧胶婀$€圭偞鈧佲偓浣哥暚閺佸瓨鈧佲偓浣稿挤閺冭埖鈧佲偓浣稿斧閸掓稒鈧呯搼閿涘矁瀚㈤張澶夐暅閺夊喛绱濈拠椋庮儑娑撯偓閺冨爼妫块崨濠勭叀閸掔娀娅庨妴鍌氬敶鐎归€涚矌娓氭稒濮囩挧鍕偓鍛棘閼板喛绱濋獮鏈电瑝閺嬪嫭鍨氶幎鏇$カ瀵ら缚顔呴敍灞惧鐠у嫯鈧懏宓佸銈嗘惙娴f粣绱濇搴ㄦ珦閼奉亝濯撮妴锟�