设正点财经为首页     加入收藏
首 页 财经新闻 主力数据 财经视频 研究报告 证券软件 内参传闻 股市学院 指标公式
你的位置: > 正点财经 > 研究报告 > 正文

Asia Credit Monthly:Air pocket

类型:投资策略  机构:德意志银行   研究员:德意志银行研究所  日期:2018-02-05
http://www.zdcj.net      点击收藏此报告
    

Investors across asset classes couldn’t have asked for a better start to theyear. Almost all the consensus views have played out, but at a really fast pace,hence it is not surprising that we are hitting an air pocket. We entered 2018with a constructive view on credit spreads. However, the rally YTD has beenstronger than our expectation. Markit index has tightened around 12bp inJanuary versus our full year forecast of 10bp. While we are revisiting ourforecasts and have been selectively trimming down our Buy recommendations,we generally remain positive and will be buyers of selected names on anymeaningful weakness. We don’t foresee the ongoing soft patch to last verylong.

    As detailed in our Outlook report, a sanguine macro environment is supportiveof spreads, even with gradually rising UST yields, especially if equities are alsoheading higher. Though S&P 500 has corrected 1.8% from the highs, it’s stillup 5.6% for the year. 82% of the 169 US companies that have reported 1Qresults have beaten EPS estimates. Our economics team believes that 3.5% isperhaps the magic mark for 10yr UST where the correlation between higherrates and higher equities breaks down. The pace of rise in rates will obviouslyalso matter. A quick rise as witnessed recently might hurt confidence in thenear term.

    Fundamentally, default rates should stay low and the upcoming results seasonshould be testament to our thesis of balance sheet deleveraging. Technically,supply could take a bit of a breather with the upcoming Chinese New Yearholidays and then the earnings blackout. Fund inflows could also continue witha positive backdrop for EM assets amidst weakening USD and highercommodities. Key risks remain the same in our view

相关报告:
热点推荐:
更多最新研究报告
更多财经新闻
  • 如果不能阅读报告,请点击下载阅读器
关于我们 | 商务合作 | 联系投稿 | 联系删稿 | 合作伙伴 | 法律声明 | 网站地图