国泰君安(香港)2018年港股展望摘要
There are signs that show that economic growth in China is again slowing down slightly, but China is still experiencingmedium-to-high speed growth. Meanwhile, labour market shortages persist. Environmental awareness continues toincrease, which promotes the economic restructuring in China. Real estate sales is expected to decline, while real estateinvestment and areas of housing newly started construction is expected to remain at their current levels. Deceleration ininvestment growth is expected to continue but external trade is expected to maintain its momentum. Consumption isexpanding steadily. Under the new mode of consumption, personalization of consumption, consumption by the elderly and“new retail” will be the new catalysts. B2B e-commerce platforms are optimizing traditional distribution channels. Newtechnologies are enhancing shopping experiences. The younger generation has gradually become the mainstay ofconsumers. The vitality demonstrated by consumption has become the cornerstone of medium-to-high speed economicgrowth in China.
China will continue to strengthen financial supervision to guard against financial risks. Price levels are expected to risemoderately. Monetary policy is expected to be prudent and neutral, but liquidity slightly tighter. The US economy is still in itsexpansion phase. After taking into account factors such as mild inflation and the reversal of capital flow, balance sheetshrinkage by the US Fed and tax cuts will still push US interest rates upward. The global economy is undergoing healthygrowth. The exchange rate of the RMB is expected to be relatively stable. The Stock Connect amplified the influence ofmainland funds and momentum has not ended. State-owned enterprise reforms offer investment themes for the market.
Market conditions are unfavorable to the bond market, but we expect that the stock market will be able to remain strong whilethe commodity market will trend upward.
2018 is the year when global monetary policy normalization gradually comes into effect. Despite the negative factors in thefirst half of the year, supportive factors still remain strong. The market is expected to continue to reach record highs and thento fluctuate at high levels. High earnings growth in 2017 will be hard to maintain. Based on weighted average marketcapitalization, the overall earnings growth forecasts for companies under our coverage for 2017/ 2018/ 2019 are 28.2%/21.5%/ 17.0%, respectively. If we exclude US listed stocks, our overall earnings growth forecasts for 2017/ 2018/ 2019become 21.7%/ 15.2%/ 10.5%, respectively. The consensus for HSI earnings growth forecasts in 2017/ 2018/ 2019 is23.8%/ 9.9%/ 12.5%, respectively. We are optimistic about the internet, clean energy (natural gas, solar and wind), cementand construction materials, environmental protection, telecommunications equipment and consumer (apparel) sectors. Thepetrochemicals, nonferrous metals, ports and infrastructure sectors will provide short-term trading opportunities.
