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Hengrui Medicine:Access China conference highlights

类型:公司研究       机构:德意志银行       研究员:Jack Hu       日期:2018-01-12
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Solid growth to continue with multiple catalysts ahead.

    The two key take-aways include 1) Hengrui already filed PD1 application in 4Q17.

    We believe the indications are cHL and esophageal cancer, which is earlier thanstreet consensus. This led to stock rally on Tuesday. Additionally the companyexpects approval in 2018; 2) Hengrui expects growth acceleration in 2018. Webelieve this might be a combination of delayed booking of export profit andother unspecified elements. For 2017, Hengrui reiterated 18-20% domestic salesgrowth and 20% exports growth. As for the products breakdown, traditionaloncology/ anesthetics/ contrast agents should reach 10-15%, 20% and over 30%growth respectively in 2017. In addition, lower pricing erosion could be witnessedin FY18 compared with FY17, as secondary negotiations and tenders are largelyconcluded.

    Apatinib growth likely to accelerate in 2018; 4Q17 hiccup.

    The company indicated that apatinib sales was below expectation in 2017,due to slowdown in 4Q17 stemming from NRDL settlement/ implementationdelays and budget controls. Hengrui remains optimistic on 2018 outlook drivenby reimbursement coverage. Despite the 36% nominal ASP cut of apatinib,management believes the upside could very well outweigh pricing erosion. Assuch, management welcomes negotiations for NRDL/ PRDL rolling inclusionfor key innovative products. In addition, indication expansion studies for livercancer and NSCLC are both progressing to final stages, with approval expectedin 2H18-2019.

    Updates on pipeline and other key takeaways.

    Four blockbusters are likely to be approved including nab-paclitaxel, 19K,pyrotinib and PD-1. Hengrui commented on bigger addressable market forpyrotinib vs. apatinib, on the back of longer treatment duration, without offeringany color on pricing strategy. On nab-paclitaxel, Hengrui and CSPC are both onpriority review list, with the possibility of obtaining approvals simultaneously. Asfor R&D spending, the ratio is likely to remain at current level, as expense increasewill synchronize with sales growth. On management incentive, the companyimplemented 3 rounds in 2014/16/17, with near-term plan of another round, using3m reserved shares.

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