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Macro Note:

类型:投资策略  机构:大华银行有限公司   研究员:大华银行研究所  日期:2018-01-05
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Vietnam’s economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2017, expanding by 7.7% y/yversus 7.5% y/y in the third quarter. The improved economic dynamics suggested that theeconomy shifted to a higher gear. As a whole, the economy grew by 6.8% in 2017, up from6.2% in the previous year. Manufacturing production and FDI remained important economicgrowth drivers. A surge in FDI inflows—amounting to USD33.1bn in the first eleven months of2017—kept the economy on a robust expansion path. Meanwhile, manufacturing productionincreased 14.4% in 2017, up from 11.9% in 2016.

    For the economy in 2018, we predict steady growth ahead on the back of high transport andenergy infrastructure investments and increased manufacturing production boosted by continuedopening of new foreign-invested factories. Exports and tourism will continue to benefit from abroad-based global recovery. Despite a robust rate of economic growth in 2017, our 2018economic growth projection of 6.6% remains unchanged at present in part due to the highbased effects which will exert a statistical dampener on growth, particularly in the second half of2018. The government also aims to achieve annual economic growth of 6.5-6.7% according tothe 2018 socio-economic development plan.

    In terms of monetary policy, we expect unchanged refinancing rate at 6.25% for 2018 sincethe strong growth eases pressure on the government and the central bank to add more stimuli inorder to achieve annual growth target of 6.6% under the 2018 socio-economic development plan.

    In addition, maintaining interest rates at low levels remain necessary to support the continuationof economic expansion going forward. Another policy rate cut may not be on the cards at theSBV as some central banks in ASEAN will likely commence monetary policy normalization byraising the policy rates gradually in 2018.

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