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Weekly transaction data tracking:Weekly sales showing sequential improvement

类型:投资策略  机构:德意志银行   研究员:德意志银行研究所  日期:2017-12-07
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CN: Weekly sales showing sequential improvement

    For the week of 27November to 3December, the 25cities tracked by Soufunreported total sales volume of 3.9m sqm, up another 6% wow. Year-on-yearrecorded a 2% increase. For the last four weeks, sales volume was up 1% 4w-4w / flattish yoy to 14.0m sqm. For the YTD, total sales volume was down 22%yoy, the same as last week. The 4w yoy change stopped dropping for the firsttime since late March, which showed sequential improving trends, especiallyin T1(-18% 4w yoy vs. -38% YTD) and T2(+9% 4w yoy vs -26% YTD). Basedon the weekly data, we think it is likely we will see a better November vs.October for T1/2cities. (Soufun, Deutsche Bank)

    CN: Six developers’ sales in November remain strong

    For the major listed developers we tracked, six have reported their Novembersales, namely Aoyuan (3883.HK), Evergrande (3333.HK), Future Land(1030.HK), R&F (2777.HK), Sunac (1981.HK) and Vanke (2202.HK). The yoychanges ranged from 18-206% for November with YTD sales up 25-142%. Fourof the six developers’ sales showed a mom increase in sales value and most ofthem have fulfilled their annual sales targets, except R&F (92%) and Vanke(without target). (Company, Deutsche Bank)

    CN: RMB6.0bn CMBS product for CM Shekou’s rental apartments approved

    CM Shekou (001979.SZ) announced the Shenzhen Stock Exchange hasapproved the issuance of CMBS for its rental apartments with a total issuancesize of RMB6.0bn. The size of the first tranche will be limited at RMB2.0bnwith a term of 18years. Currently, the developer has 16k rental apartmentunits with a planned GFA of 600k sqm. (Company, Guandian)

    HK: 16tenders for URA’s Reclamation Street project, at est. HK$1.23-1.35bn

    The Urban Renewal Authority received 16tenders for the ReclamationStreet/Shantung Street project in Mong Kok, from, amongst others, CK Asset(1113.HK), HKRI (480.HK), Emperor (163.HK), Chinachem, and Vanke(2202.HK). The valuation of the residential development is estimated to beHK$1.23-1.35bn (or at an ASP of HK$11k-12k on a GFA of 112.2k sf). (HKET)

    HK: Cullinan West II to launch sales of 119units, with 3% price increase

    Cullinan West II will launch another batch of 119units, with a price rise of ~3%compared to the prior batch. Sales can start by the end of this week. (HKET)

    HK: Mortgage benchmark 1-month HIBOR stays at record for last two days

    1-month HIBOR was reported at 1.03924%, which has stayed above 1% fortwo consecutive trading days, according to the Hong Kong Association ofBanks. It crossed above 1% on 29Nov, for the first time since Dec-2008. (HKEJ)

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