DB Today -Global/Macro

Global Strategy - Asset Allocation- Binky Chadha

    A little more than half way through the earnings season (260companies, 52% ofmarket cap), 75% of companies have beat on EPS, slightly above the historicalaverage of 73%. The size of the aggregate beat at 4.7% is also slightly above thetypical 3.4%. On sales, 67% beat, near record highs and well above the historicalaverage of 57%. In aggregate sales beat by 1.1%, well above the typical 0.6%.

    Global Strategy - Fed Notes - Peter Hooper

    With market expectations running very much in line with the FOMC’s latestmedian projection of a rate hike in December, the FOMC will have little reasonto either amplify or alter its message in the November statement. We expectan uneventful outcome, with primary focus on the tea leaves in the first twoparagraphs: i.e, in how the Committee sees recent and prospective economicdevelopments.

    Global Strategy - db140weekender - Luke Templeman

    ECB tapering - Mario Draghi may have jumped into taper mode this weekbut a “dovish tightening” was the buzz-phrase. Indeed, given the impact ofreinvestments, quantitative easing should remain significant next year and the?400bn of bonds that will likely be purchased in the first nine months of 2018would be just one-quarter less than this year. Yet, although inflation is trendingup in aggregate, on an economic output weighted basis, just four per centof the eurozone has a core inflation reading above the two per cent target.Furthermore, half the eurozone’s output lies in economies with inflation under 1.5per cent. Fiscal spending may need to provide a further boost, however, with allbut four low-inflation countries already running a budget deficit, this is far fromstraightforward. If fiscal stimulus is therefore off the table, the ECB’s taper maybe long indeed.