ORD Daily Insight

类型：投资策略机构：申银万国证券(香港)有限公司研究员：Kris Li 日期：2017-10-24

We believe Sunny Optical will continue to increase its net profit in 2017 on the back ofits strong technological advantage. Given its recent higher-than-expected shipmentvolume, we revise up our diluted EPS forecasts from Rmb2.52 to Rmb2.61 in 17E(+123.1% YoY), from Rmb3.73 to Rmb4.04 in 18E (+54.8% YoY), and from Rmb4.74 toRmb6.00 in 19E (+48.5% YoY). Our 18E EPS forecast is 20% higher than marketconsensus. We lift our target price from HK$130 to HK$145, representing 30x 18E PE.

    With 29% upside, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

    Optical upgrade. We believe the company’s solid performance this year was mainlydriven by its growing dual-camera penetration rate. We now expect monthly moduleshipments to be in line with market expectations. We forecast the firm’s product mix tocontinue to improve, and its dual-camera modules to account for 30% of shipments in2H17E. Meanwhile, the increasing adoption of dual-camera designs by Chinesesmartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) on their mid-range smartphonemodels will provide further growth potential. Given Sunny’s strong competitive edge in3D sensor module making, we forecast sales of 3D sensor modules will reach 10m unitsin 18E. We believe the increasing adoption of the 3D sensor technology will also providegrowth potential as Apple (AAPL:US) continues to upgrade its 3D sensors and androidbasedsmartphone makers follow the trend.

    Lens beat. We believe that the market underestimates Sunny’s future lens growthpotential. Looking at the handset lens business, we note the company has alreadyshipped its first hybrid lenses to clients. We think Sunny will continue to gain marketshare in coming years, on the back of its technological advantage. Meanwhile, thegrowing adoption of 3D sensors increases demand for lenses. We expect camera lensshipments to climb 35% YoY in 18E and 25% YoY in 19E. As for the vehicle lenssegment, we highlight Sunny’s dominant market position and expect shipments to growfurther in the next two years. We forecast vehicle lens shipments to grow 75% YoY in18E and expect its average selling price (ASP) and gross margin to improve.

    Maintain BUY. We revise up our diluted EPS forecasts from Rmb2.52 to Rmb2.61 in 17E(+123.1% YoY), from Rmb3.73 to Rmb4.04 in 18E (+54.8% YoY), and from Rmb4.74 toRmb6.00 in 19E (+48.5% YoY). Our 18E EPS forecast is 20% higher than marketconsensus. The stock is trading at 24x 18E PE and 10x 18E PB. We lift our target pricefrom HK$130 to HK$145, representing 30x 18E PE. With 29% upside, we maintain ourBUY recommendation.