Group-DB Today -Global/2017Macro
MACRO HIGHLIGHTS。
Global Strategy - Asset Allocation - Binky Chadha。
A legacy of the financial crisis has been the narrative of a secular decline in ratesof return. But have rates of return declined? This is patently the case in fixedincome where government bond yields are near all-time lows and credit spreadsat mid- to late cycle tights. The US 10y yield has historically been a good predictorof subsequent total returns, so prospective returns look unambiguously low. Alonger history suggests bond yields are low but not unusually so. Yields werein a 2-5% range for 65years from 1900-1965; broke out above during the GreatInflation of 1966-1995; then reverted back into the “old normal” range.。
Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian Raedler。
Macro: Flash Euro area composite PMI new orders rebounded to a six-year highof 56.3in September, up from 55.5in August and consistent with Euro area GDPgrowth of 3%+ (slide 6). However, PMI momentum
- ·2019年9月财政数据点评：支出大幅增长 基建投向分化 2019-10-18
- ·9月&3季度经济数据点评：9月我国工业增加值表现回暖 2019-10-18
- ·9月经济数据点评：6%的信号 2019-10-18
- ·2019年9月主要经济数据点评：下行压力释放 未来企稳可期 2019-10-18
- ·宏观研究：GDP6.0后的政策抉择 2019-10-18
- ·九月房地产投资数据分析：投资回落趋缓 销售趋于好转 2019-10-18
