Group-DB Today -Global/2017Macro

MACRO HIGHLIGHTS。

    Global Strategy - Asset Allocation - Binky Chadha。

    A legacy of the financial crisis has been the narrative of a secular decline in ratesof return. But have rates of return declined? This is patently the case in fixedincome where government bond yields are near all-time lows and credit spreadsat mid- to late cycle tights. The US 10y yield has historically been a good predictorof subsequent total returns, so prospective returns look unambiguously low. Alonger history suggests bond yields are low but not unusually so. Yields werein a 2-5% range for 65years from 1900-1965; broke out above during the GreatInflation of 1966-1995; then reverted back into the “old normal” range.。

    Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian Raedler。

    Macro: Flash Euro area composite PMI new orders rebounded to a six-year highof 56.3in September, up from 55.5in August and consistent with Euro area GDPgrowth of 3%+ (slide 6). However, PMI momentum