Metals &Mining Alert:Daily prices and news,Poll indicates next rate hike in December

类型：行业研究机构：德意志银行研究员：Jorge Beristain,Chris Terry 日期：2017-07-27

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.88 (+0.7%), copper $2.72 (+0.2%), lead $1.03 (-0.9%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $4.44 (+1.9%); zinc $1.27 (-0.7%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,244 (+0.8%), silver $16.29 (+1.1%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $563 (+0.6%), SHFE Rebar $536 (+0.4%), MB Scrap Index $295 (+0.0%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $69 (+1.7%), coking coal (/mt) $169 (+0.4%), freight (BCI)984 (+5.5%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $48.84 (+0.9%), WTI (/bbl) $46.40 (+0.8%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $3.09 (+2.3%), thermal coal (/t) $86 (+1.5%).

    Fed may begin shedding the balance sheet holdings it accumulated to offsetfinancial crisis, in September, per Reuters poll of economists. Financial marketsare pricing in a 43% chance of a 25bps hike in December as expectations havebeen pushed back by a quarter due to weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

    Growth has not evolved as anticipated with 2Q at 2.7% (2.2-2.5% annualized),below the 3% target set by Trump administration. Focus turns to the next Fedmeeting on July 25-26 for any clues on policy actions. (Reuters).

    NA Service Center steel inventories rose 49kt (+1% MoM) to 8.4m st in June (-4% YoY), vs. 10-year avg. decline of 145kt. Shipments down (-1% MoM ondays-adj. basis) to 3.8m st (+2% YoY), implying 2.2 months of supply (flatMoM). Underlying steel demand remains robust with US shipments up 4% YoYto 20m st YTD. US SC shipment of flat products at 15.4m st (+3% YTD), longs(2.6m, +9%), stainless (1.0m, +4%) and pipe/tubes (1.2m, -6%). (MSCI, DB).

    World Bank report claims demand for metals used in electric storage batteriescould grow by 10x, if countries act against global warming. Transitioning to alow-carbon future could help mineral-rich countries grow, providedmechanisms to safeguard communities exist. Current trends indicate Chile,Peru and Bolivia are key suppliers of copper and lithium. (Mining Weekly).

    US Department of Commerce amends anti-dumping (AD) margins on rebarimports from Turkey, citing ministerial errors. AD margins raised to 9.06% forIcdas (vs. previous 8.17%) and set at 7.43% for all other Turkish producers (vs.

    previous 6.94%). Cash deposit rates for Habas and Icdas raised to 5.25%(5.18%) and 8.89% (8%), respectively. (SBB).

    Vale announces suspension of Public Civil Claim filed by Federal Prosecutorsagainst them in relation to the Samarco dam failure. However, negotiationsover the final agreement are still ongoing and are expected to be finalized byOctober 30, 2017. Samarco’s restart in 2017 remains unlikely. (Company, DB).

    Lithium Americas raises $113m ($33m equity and $80m debt) from Thaienergy company, Bangchak to fund a portion of construction costs for itsCaucharí-Olaroz lithium project, Argentina (SQM-Lithium Americas JV).

    Collectively, Lithium Americas has raised $285m and is in a strong position tofund their portion of capex for Caucharí-Olaroz (total capex: $425m). Targetedproduction is 25kt/pa LCE over 40-years, beginning in 2H19. (Mining Weekly)