Metals &Mining Alert:Daily prices and news,Section 232may lead to negotiated settlements

类型：行业研究机构：德意志银行研究员：Jorge Beristain,Chris Terry 日期：2017-07-26

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.86 (-1.7%), copper $2.64 (-0.1%), lead $1.05(+1.0%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $4.08 (+0.9%); zinc $1.26 (-0.4%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,214 (+0.1%), silver $15.67 (+0.4%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $540 (+0.9%), SHFE Rebar $505 (+1.6%), MB Scrap Index $293 (+0.0%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $65 (+0.3%), coking coal (/mt) $155 (+0.6%), freight (BCI)730 (-3.1%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $46.88 (+0.4%), WTI (/bbl) $44.40 (+0.4%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.93 (+2.3%), thermal coal (/t) $82 (-0.2%).

    Trump administration suggests the Section 232 initiative could lead to“negotiated settlements” after numerous conversations with America’scounterparts. US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin confirmed goodprogress in terms of negotiating settlements with Chinese delegates, but saidtrade action was possible if they were unable to reach an agreement which isconsidered satisfactory by President Trump. Concerns over initiating apotential trade war with steel tariffs did not worry the administration. (SBB).

    Aluminum Associations Index of Net New Orders of Aluminum Mill Productsdeclines in June (-1% MoM, -1% YoY) to 113. Plate orders had the largestsequential decline, down 9% MoM to 95 (-8% YoY), while foil saw biggest gainat 95 (+4% MoM, +4%). YTD orders (through June) are up 2% YoY with largestgains in heat treatable sheet (+32%) and plate (+22%). (Aluminum Association).

    Global holdings of gold ETF’s increase by 22 tons in June to 2,313 tons. Valueof holdings declined 1% MoM to $94bn as gold prices fell on Fed’s hawkishoutlook and strong labor data in US. Holdings in North America and Europerose whereas decline of Chinese holdings slowed down. (World Gold Council).

    US steel output up 0.9% WoW to 1.73m st (+4% YoY), with utilization at74.3% (+70 bps WoW, +300 bps YoY) for week ending 7/8, on higher outputfrom three out of five regions. YTD output totals ~47m st (+2.2% YoY), withutilization at 74.4% (+200 bps YoY). (AISI).

    Global Oil & Gas rig count rises to 2,041 in June (+106 MoM, +994 YoY),highest monthly level since November 2015. Largest increase was Canada to150 (+76% MoM), followed by USA to 931 (+4.3% MoM). Eurofer, the EU steelproducers group revised its tube production forecast upward for 2017, citingimproving drilling activity supported demand for OCTG. (SBB).

    Indonesia seeks meeting with Freeport-McMoRan CEO to settle ongoingdispute. Although exports from its Grasberg mine resumed in April, apermanent solution is key to underground development at Grasberg. Companyhas maintained its request for an “investment stability agreement” beforecommitting any additional capex for Grasberg (~$3bn pending). (Reuters).

    Workers at Zaldivar copper mine, Chile (Barrick-Antofagasta JV) have voted tostrike after talks with both companies failed. As per government rules, workerswill be permitted to halt post a 5-day mediation period. (Mining.com)