Weekly Outlook

SINGAPORE - After NODX, Data Focus Shifts To May CPI & Industrial Production

    Singapore’s May non-oil domestic exports (NODX) contracted for the second month in a row, by -1.2%y/y (from -0.8% in Apr). Non-electronics exports declined -9.0%y/y in May, more than offset the 23.3%y/y electronics exports surge. For the upcoming week, Singapore’s key data will be the May CPI and industrial production data both on 23 June (Fri), ahead of a long week as the Singapore market is closed on 26 Jun (Mon) for Hari Raya Puasa holiday.

    KEY ASIAN ECONOMIES - It’s Super Thursday For Central Banks

    This is a full work week for Asia except for North Korea which celebrates Kim Jong-Il Initiation Day on Monday (19 Jun) and markets’ attention will be on geo-political risks with potentially more provocative N. Korean missile tests ahead of the North Korean holiday. It will be a Super Thursday (22 Jun) with 4 major central banks in Asia-Pacific with monetary policy decisions on that day, starting with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, CBC (Taiwan) and BSP (Philippines). All are expected to keep their respective policies unchanged but markets will look for indication for tightening in the horizon. The bulk of China data is already announced in the last 2 weeks but we still have China May property prices (19 Jun) and the Conference Board leading index for May (20 Jun). Trade data will also be in focus with Taiwan’s May Export orders (20 Jun) and South Korea reports the first 20-days exports and imports for June (21 Jun) while May IP data from Taiwan & Singapore (23 Jun). The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its June policy meeting minutes on Tuesday (20 Jun). Note that economic activity is expected to wind down towards the end of the week for some major ASEAN economies like Indonesia and Malaysia as we approach the Hari Raya Puasa Aidlfitri holidays (25 Jun, Sun).

    US AND DEVELOPED ECONOMIES - European Politics Stay In The Spotlight

    Friday’s (16 Jun) focus will be on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy decision and the BOJ is likely to keep policy status quo but there is speculation that the BOJ may communicate to market about an exit policy, even though an exit from QE is unlikely anytime soon for Japan. European geo-politics will remain in focus with this weekend’s French parliamentary elections (2nd round) (18 Jun) where new French President Marcon’s La République En Marche party could obtain a staggering majority of seats. 19 June (Mon) is an important day for UK with 2 key events; the Queen’s Speech at the State Opening of Parliament and the beginning of Brexit negotiation between UK government and EU. But the Queen’s speech is increasingly likely to be delayed as PM Theresa May tries to negotiate a coalition government with Irish DUP, but May insisted that the Brexit negotiation will start as planned. European Union leaders will hold a Summit in Brussels on 22-23 Jun. There is no major central bank monetary policy decision this week but several Fed Reserve voters will speak in public forums including Dudley (19 Jun), Evans (19 Jun), Kaplan (20 Jun) and FOMC Vice Chair Fischer (20 Jun). BOJ Gov Kuroda will speak in Tokyo on 21 Jun after the release of the 26/27 April MPM minutes. The US & developed economies data docket takes a backseat but some focus will be on Japan’s May trade data (19 Jun), US housing data (23 Jun) and prelim June Markit manufacturing & services PMI for developed economies (23 Jun).