Metals &Mining Alert:Daily prices and news,Aircraft producers raise LT demand forecasts

类型：行业研究机构：德意志银行研究员：Jorge Beristain,Chris Terry 日期：2017-06-26

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.85 (-1.0%), copper $2.60 (+1.5%), lead $0.99(+2.7%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $4.08 (+2.1%); zinc $1.20 (+3.3%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,247 (+0.3%), silver $16.51 (+0.3%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $504 (+0.2%), SHFE Rebar $448 (-1.9%), MB Scrap Index $276 (+1.5%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $57 (-0.3%), coking coal (/mt) $147 (+2.8%), freight (BCI)1,020 (-8.1%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $44.82 (-2.6%), WTI (/bbl) $42.53 (-1.6%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.89 (-0.5%), thermal coal (/t) $81 (-0.1%).

    Aircraft manufacturers raise global aircraft demand forecasts for next 20 years.

    Airbus anticipates 34,900 new aircraft by 2036 (+6% from last year’s forecast)while Boeing estimates 41,030 aircraft needed by 2036 (+4%). Long-termgrowth in aerospace industry likely to benefit suppliers Allegheny Technologies,Arconic, Carpenter Technology, Constellium and Kaiser Aluminum. (Argus, DB).

    Crude steel output by members of China Iron and Steel Association duringJune 1-10 averages 1.86m tons/day (+5% sequentially, +7% YoY). Finishedsteel inventory at mills totaled 12.7mt (-1% seq, -10% YoY). Rebound in outputwas expected as environmental inspections ended in late-May. Output maydecrease by June-end as mills carry out routine maintenance stoppages. (SBB).

    Swiss gold exports rise 39% MoM to 170 tons in May. Exports to India rose40% to 68 tons whereas exports to China fell 30% to 28 tons. Swiss importsstood at 181 tons (+14%). (Bloomberg Finance LP).

    US steel import permits for June through 6/20 total 2.6m st. If adjusted to a fullmonth, imports would be 3.9m st (+40% YoY), vs. May permits of 3.6m st andApril imports of 3.4m st. Rebars (+168kt, +145%) appear to increase the mostMoM, followed by hot-rolled sheets (+96kt, +58%) whereas semis (-160kt, -15%) and wire rod (-48kt, -25%) permits fell. (US Import Administration).

    US Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) spot price increased $15/st WoW to $592/st on 6/21.

    HR and Cold-Rolled sheet spread contracted to $206/st (-$13/st WoW). NYMEXDecember 2017 forward HRC price rose $19/st WoW to $625/st. (CRU, CME).

    Indonesia may grant Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) permit extension in October,subject to agreement on various aspects. FCX’s temporary license expires inOctober and they are seeking extension till 2041. (Bloomberg Finance LP).

    Goldcorp (GG) to sell 100% stake in Camino Rojo oxide project, Mexico to OrlaMining. GG to receive C$35m Orla equity, 2% net smelter return royalty onproject revenues, an option to acquire 70% stake in future sulfide projects andright to nominate a Director to Orla’s Board. Deal to close in 2H17. (Company)Coal India, world’s largest coal producer plans to close 37 mines before March2018. Increasing competition from renewable energy sources and stringentenvironmental regulations has increased costs for the company, whichproduces ~82% of India’s total coal output. (Mining.com)