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类型:投资策略  机构:大华银行有限公司   研究员:大华银行研究所  日期:2017-06-19
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In line with consensus expectation, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 4.75%today. The lending and deposit facility rates were also maintained at 5.50% and 4.00% respectively. The central bank haskept its interest rate steady for the eighth consecutive month.

    For the current quarter, the central bank expects GDP growth to improve (1Q17: 5.01% y/y) due to stronger exports andconsumption while the current account (1Q17: -1.0% of GDP) is forecast to remain at a healthy level. Today’s export data for Maywhich came in at 24.08% y/y indicates that export growth momentum has remained robust.

    BI said it will continue to monitor global risks which include the increase in US’ Fed Funds Target Rate and the potential balancesheetreduction. BI expects the improvement in investor sentiment to maintain capital inflows which will underpin the stability inthe IDR. The neutral policy stance is not expected to change unless these risks affect the inflation and exchange rate. We seethe sustained stability in the IDR pushing back any monetary tightening by BI to the first half of 2018 but the progress ofmonetary policy normalisation in the US still points to an upward trajectory in Indonesia’s policy rate going forward.

    We do not see further room to cut interest rate taking into account of the inflation outlook and the relaxation of the reserverequirement ratio (RRR) rules which will take effect from July. Banks will no longer need to maintain 6.50% of deposits at centralbanks on daily basis and only need to keep a daily minimum 5% of deposits while maintaining at least 6.5% average in a twoweekperiod.

    Inflation Risks Are ContainedHeadline inflation has continued to edge higher to 14-month high in May, rising to 4.33% y/y from 4.17% in April due to greaterpass-through of earlier electricity tariff hike and the onset of Ramadan which is expected to increase the inflationary pressurefrom late-May to June period. However, food prices increase of 3.4% y/y in May was still considerably lower compared to earlierpart of the year and in 2016. Overall, the stability of the core inflation, along with the current global commodities and growthoutlook suggest that inflation risks remain contained. We expect headline CPI to average 4.1% this year which remains within BI’s3-5% target. This is in line with BI’s forecast of year-end inflation at 4.36% y/y.

    USD/IDR OutlookWe have revised our USD/IDR forecast earlier this month as we lowered our US dollar trajectory, reflecting US political troublesas well as the administration making little headway into tax, infrastructure, health care & other promised fiscal reforms. In additionto Indonesia’s narrowing current account deficit, the endorsement by rating agency S&P’s in May to award the country aninvestment grade will likely contribute to more IDR stability should market volatility increases. Indonesia’s current account deficitnarrowed to 1.8% of GDP in 2016 (2015: -2.0%, 2014: -3.1%) and is expected to be maintained at 1.8% this year.

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