DB Today -Global/Macro

A less certain election outcome: our economists highlight that polls ahead of theUK general election on June 8th have tightened sharply, as attention has shiftedfrom Brexit to unpopular Conservative policies on social care and education aswell as questions about Prime Minister May’s leadership. While a 50+ seatConservative majority remains our economists’ central scenario (up from thecurrent majority of 17), the probability of a smaller Conservative win or even aLabour-led government have risen. In this report, we explore three possibleelection scenarios