DB Today -Global/Macro:Thursday,18th May 2017

Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian RaedlerWill European growth surprise on the upside? According to Bloombergconsensus data, there is not a single private sector forecaster projecting Euroarea GDP growth above 2% for either this year or next. Yet, the most reliablelead indicator for Euro area GDP growth, the Euro area composite PMI neworders index, points to GDP growth of 3%, highlighting the scope for a Euroarea growth surprise. What is more, global PMIs have started to roll over whilethe Euro area PMI has held up well, leaving the relative Euro area PMI close to a20-year high. Relative macro surprises confirm this picture of Europeanstrength: Euro area macro surprises remain at elevated levels, even as globalsurprises and those in the US have fallen sharply. Details on page 06Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid