Indonesia Strategy:3Q16earnings scorecard
Property earnings were below consensus estimates (avg. 55% FY16E) whichwe attribute to the Tax Amnesty during 3Q16 depressing marketing sales. Wethink the market will continue to look to FY17 improvements in that sector.
Industrial estates surprised against low consensus expectations reaching anaverage 89% FY16 consensus during 9M16.
Banks reported stable to rising net interest margins, beating consensusrevenue estimates. Although credit charges increased, on balance bankscame in line with net profit estimates. Mandiri was the only top 4 bank belowconsensus expectations at 70% 9M16. Smaller banks on average beat, withDanamon a stand-out (80% FY16E consensus).
Astra reported 9M16 NPAT at 71% of consensus estimates. 3Q16 revenuedeclined 4% y/y and -6% q/q, Ebit -7% q/q and profit contribution from its autojoint-ventures and associates was flat y/y. Financial services, in particularBank Permata, continued to negatively weigh on earnings with Permatabooking a Rp1.2tr net loss for 9M16. Recent stock trading appears to be offnews of auto volumes and reported market share gains in both 2W and 4W.
In Retail, with Mitra Adiperkasa a notable beat reaching 85% of consensusFY16 EBIT estimates, a big improvement q/q. Lower-end retailers MatahariDept Store and Ramayana saw subdued 3Q16 operating profit with Mataharilowering same-store sales growth guidance.
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