The Global Macro Outlook:2017,in 10pages and 32charts

类型：宏观经济机构：麦格理证券股份有限公司研究员：麦格理证券研究所日期：2016-10-20

After a February 2016 trough, the OECD Leading Indicator has recovered for sixmonths. Please see the data on page 2. The industrial cycle was, we believe, theprincipal cause of the 2014-16 deceleration in global growth, and will be thedriver of the forecast 2017-18 recovery.

The durability of this upswing is strengthened by: 1) the employment-ledrecovery underway in Europe, 2) the healing of private sector balance sheets inadvanced economies, and 3) the expected second leg up in the USconsumption growth story, pages 2-10.

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