Macau Gaming:Alert,Maintain July GGR Forecast at MOP18.5bn,-1%YoY

+6% Mass GGR Growth in 2Q16— The quarterly statistics from DICJ show thatMacau mass table GGR was flat YoY in 2Q16. Recall, DICJ accounts for PremiumMass GGR as VIP. The flat growth DICJ reported effectively confirms our view that2Q16is the first quarter since 3Q14where Mass GGR (after adjusting for PremiumMass) grew positively (our estimate is +6% YoY). VIP revenue fell 16% YoY,reported DICJ. We believe VIP fell 22% after Premium Mass adjustment. VIP/Masssplit was 44:56(vs. 47:53in 1Q16and 50:50in 2015).

    Macau GGR of MOP9.1bn — Based on industry sources, Macau table GGR for thefirst 17days in July could have reached ~MOP8.6bn (or ~MOP9.1bn, including anestimated ~MOP520m in slot-related revenue). The ADR for the past weekamounted to ~MOP550m (5% higher than ~MOP525m in the first ten days of July).Exiting a seasonally slow 2Q and entering a normally stronger 2H, we continue tobelieve that Macau’s visitation and GGR should improve gradually. We maintain ourJuly GGR forecast for Macau of MOP18.5bn (-1% YoY and +16% MoM).