Asia Essentials

类型：投资策略机构：麦格理证券股份有限公司研究员：麦格理证券研究所日期：2016-06-01

Conclusion

    We upgrade Inpex to Outperform from Neutral and Japex to Outperform fromUnderperform. Both stocks have lagged global peers since the oil pricerecovery. Inpex has exhausted all negative catalysts for the time being, andsubstantial production growth over the next three years offers good (andgrowing) value for the shareholders. Our relatively bullish view of oil seems tobe playing out now with oil back at US$50/bbl; our forecast is for oil price tomove back up to US$61/bbl in 2017 and US$68/bbl in 2018.

    Impact

    Market willing to price in 2H 2016 tightness early. Oil rebalancing has notstarted yet (supply still growing faster than demand), but we expect it tohappen in 2H 2016. The market seems to be willing to price it in earlier