Asia Pacific Energy-Oil:Reforms,M&A catalysts,deflation;Buy PetroChina,Woodside

类型：行业研究机构：高盛高华证券有限责任公司研究员：Franklin Chow,Mark Wiseman 日期：2016-05-23

Long-term $53-$63/bbl range in a US$-based deflationary oil market.

    Our commodities research team recently revised forecasts to an earlier oilprice recovery due to near-term deficit (i.e., temporary supply disruptions,strong demand). We maintain US$53-$63/bbl long-term Brent oil priceforecasts because of our views on: 1) further US shale productivity (3%-10% annually); 2) elevated OPEC supply (maximizing output instead ofretaining substantial spare capacity, e.g., Saudi Arabia) and new onshorelegacy project startups (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela). We nowexpect 2016/2017 Brent oil prices to be $45/$55/bbl (vs $39/$60/bbl prior).

    Fewer “Top Projects” in New Oil Order: Market rocked by US shale.

    In the annual Top Projects report, published on May 20, 2016, our globalenergy research team expects a flatter cost structure to spark competitionfor capital and market share. Our US Energy team expects average shalebreakevens at $50-$55/bbl WTI prices (11% IRR) and potentially below$50/bbl by end-2020, with regional differentiation. Outside OPEC and theUS, deflation, FX, and tax may further lower breakeven levels. Hence, theglobal team sees over US$550bn of capex and 60bn boe of reserves beingat risk in potentially uneconomic projects (breakeven over US$60/bbl).

    Upstream/integrated: Buy PetroChina (H/ADR) and Woodside.

    We continue to focus on free cash flow, dividend payouts and strategicappeal. We think implied US$45-62/bbl Brent oil prices in our coveragemay not reflect upside risks in potential reforms and acquisitions.

    China: Buy PetroChina on improving outlook, asset restructuring.

    We reiterate our Buy on PetroChina (H). We think its upstream woes (highlifting costs, past gas price cuts) are well flagged. Near term, we believe itremains focused on pipeline restructuring (upside risks to dividends) whileexercising cost/capex discipline along with domestic oil production cuts.

    Australia: Buy Woodside, Sell Santos and Beach.

    We maintain a Buy rating on Woodside for its free cash flow growth anddividends. We reiterate Sell ratings on Santos and Beach Energy as wethink both are overvalued (implying US$58-62/bbl Brent oil prices).

    ASEAN/India/Japan: Neutral, fair valuations.

    Maintain Neutral mainly on valuations, and also due to lower reserve lifefor PTTEP and under-recovery burden in the longer term for India.