INVESTMENT DAILY

类型：投资策略机构：凯基证券有限公司研究员：凯基证券研究所日期：2016-01-25

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 19,600 to 20,000today

    Undertaking the stock decline in overseas markets, Hang Seng Index decreased 425points at most in the morning. Yet benefitting from the rebound of mainland stockmarket, the falling of HSI narrowed in the afternoon. The index closed at 19,817points, decreasing 117 points. HSCEI closed at 8,459 points, dropping 34 points.

    Turnover was $75.4 billion. There’re buying trades seen in several weak resourcesectors such as steel, oil and coal stocks, among which Shenhua(1088)gained 3.5%and was ranked the top percentage gain blue-chip stock. On the contrary, Consumerstaples stocks Want Want(0151)and TingYi(0322)fell over 4% and were rankedthe worst blue-chip performer.

    US stocks fell on early Thursday due to selling pressure on technology stocks.

    However, oil price rebound pushed shares of energy and materials companies higher.

    Besides, JP Morgan quarter result beat expectation, banking shares also performedwell. US stock market reversed early weakness and finished much higher. The Dowand the Nasdaq rose 228 points (to 16,379) and 89 points (to 4,615) respectively. Onthe other hand, crude price rose 2% to US$31.2 per barrel.

    Shanghai Composite Index rose back to 3,000, which provide support to HK market.

    However, since global stock and A share market is still volatile, together withweakness of HKD, we expect local market to remain volatile in the near term.

    Technical Analysis

    It’s the second straight day Hang Seng Index has located above the bottom ofBollinger Band 19,655 points. Although the index 14-day RSI is around 26 which isclassified oversold, MACD bearish gap keeps widening, hence it’s too early toconclude that the index becomes stable. In short term, we can observe if the indexcan stay above the first support(19,430 points happened in mid-2013), and the nextsupport is 18,700 points. Furthermore, the first resistance is 20,320 points, and thenext resistance is the middle of the Bollinger Band 21,224 points.