INVESTMENT DAILY

类型：投资策略机构：凯基证券有限公司研究员：凯基证券研究所日期：2016-01-11

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 21,900 to 22,300today

    US announced the nonfarm payrolls data last Friday, which beat the marketexpectations, supporting the US equities climbed 370 points. However, the HangSeng Index remained weak on Monday trading. The Index closed at 22,203 points,decreasing 32 points. HSCEI closed at 9,798 points, declining 36 points. Turnoverfor the whole day was $65.85 billion. OPEC could not reach agreement to cut oilproduction, leading the oil price fell below US$40. CNOOC(883) and Petrochina(857) decreased nearly 4.9% and 2.2% respectively. Jushenghua acquired around 5.5million A shares of China Vanke and became the largest shareholder. Vanke H share(2202) fell over 5%.

    Since Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cannot make agreement tocut production during last Friday meeting, oil price plunged on Monday, fell 5.8% toclose at US$37.7 per barrel. Hence, energy and material stocks also dropped sharplyon Monday, the Dow once lost more than 200 points. The Dow and the Nasdaqclosed 117 points (to 17,731) and 40 points (to 5,102) lower respectively. On theother hand, fund flow back to bond market, 10 Year US Treasury Yield dropped 5basis point to 2.23%.

    Since ECB stimulus plan released last Thursday is below expectation, while USnon-farm payroll is very strong, global stock market is very volatile recently.

    However, HK stock just continued its narrow range trading, while turnover is low,reflecting investors stay sideline. On the other hand, there is a series of Chinaeconomy data to be released this week, which will be market focus.

    Technical Analysis

    Hang Seng Index lacked upside forces, moving between the middle and the bottomof Bollinger Band. Currently the band width further narrows to 900 points only,apparently waiting for a breakthrough. The index remained above the bottom forseveral times, meaning that we can be prudently optimistic in the short run. Last timethe index fell below the bottom of Bollinger Band is mid-August, and by the time theindex accumulated 15% decline before a rebound happened. Hence, if HSI fallsbelow the bottom of Bollinger Band 21,936 points, it may challenge the first support21,719 points, and the next support will be 21,000 points. In addition, the firstresistance for the index is the ceiling of the Bollinger Band 22,842 points, the nextresistance is the closing low during early July of 23,516 points.