Markets Overview

类型：投资策略机构：大华银行有限公司研究员：大华银行研究所日期：2015-12-10

The solid U.S non-farm payrolls on Friday is a firmreaffirmation to a rate hike in December. We still expectthe first Fed rate hike to take place in the 15-16 Dec 2015FOMC and we keep our rate hike trajectory projection,bringing the FFTR to 0.5% by end-2015 and to 1.5% by end-2016 in lieu of the dot-plot chart revisions (as updated in theSeptember FOMC).

    The 2 key events to watch are 1) on 3 December whenFOMC Chair Janet Yellen will first deliver a speech tothe Economic Club of Washington and then testifying beforethe congressional joint Economic Committee in an annualappearance to discuss economic outlook on the sameday, and 2) the November non-farm payrolls due on 4December. There may be some focus on the 2nd estimatefor the 3Q 2015 GDP on 24 November but the 4Q GDP willnot be available until next year, 29 Jan 2016.

    Today’s data docket is relatively light in G10, expectingonly German’s trade balance, Bank of France’s businesssentiment, Canada’s housing starts and U.S’s labor marketconditions index. Market is expecting better-than-prior printsin all except Canada’s housing starts.

    In Asia today, attention is on Malaysia’s Septemberindustrial production at 12 pm (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; Aug:3.0%) and Taiwan’s October trade data at 4 pm. Consensusforecast for Taiwan’s export is a contraction of 11.7% y/y inOctober (Sep: -14.6%) and import contraction of 17.5% y/y(Sep: -24.4%). Singapore will report its FX reserves at end-October.

    The key highlight in Asia this week is the string ofChina’s October data releases starting Tuesday with CPI(Consensus: 1.5% y/y; Sep: 1.6%) and PPI (Consensus:-5.9% y/y; Sep: -5.9%). This will be followed by China’sOctober retail sales (Consensus: 10.9% y/y; Sep: 10.9%),October industrial production (Consensus: 5.8% y/y; Sep:5.7%) and fixed asset investment (FAI) (Consensus: 10.2%YTD; Sep: 10.3%YTD) on Wednesday. China’s Octoberaggregate financing, new CNY loans and money supply datawill be due anytime from Tuesday onwards.

    On Friday, 3Q15 GDP data for Malaysia (Consensus: 4.8%y/y; 2Q15: 4.9%) and Hong Kong (Consensus: 1.8% y/y;2Q15: 2.8%) are scheduled. We will also pay attention to3Q15 current account from Malaysia (Consensus: MYR5.2bn; 2Q15: MYR7.6 bn) and Indonesia (2Q15: -USD4.477bn).