Markets Overview

In the US, all eyes will be on Friday’s employment reportwhere an increase of 180k in non-farm payrolls is expectedalongside 165k job gains in the private sector. Theunemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.1% and astable workweek of 34.5 hours but average hourly earnings tosee an above trend rise of 0.3%. The usual run in to Friday’srelease should see ADP private payrolls on Wednesday posta 180k gain, whilst Thursday should see initial claims stableat around 260k.

    Before that, the week starts with the final Markitmanufacturing PMI on Monday, followed by October ISMmanufacturing and construction spending numbers forSeptember. On Tuesday, markets receive the ISM NY indexfor October, factory orders for September, the IBD/TIPPeconomic optimism index in November, and vehicle salesfor October. On Wednesday, trade balance for September,Markit US composite and services PMI data and ISM nonmanufacturingdata will be rolled out. On Thursday, we willreceived non-farm productivity/unit labor costs for 3Q andthe weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index.

    A relatively quiet week for Eurozone data features finalOctober PMI data, the aggregate numbers expected tomatch the flash releases. Aggregate Eurozone data includeSeptember producer price inflation and retail sales data. Atthe national level, Germany publishes September industrialorders and production figures, whilst France produces itsupdated merchandise trade balance for the same month.

    The UK economic docket begins with the usual run of PMIsfrom Monday to Wednesday. Manufacturing is expected toslip back again to 51.3 from 51.5; construction at 58.8 from59.9; services to 54.5 from 53.3; and composite to 53.6 from53.3. Friday will see industrial production and trade data,both for September. PM Cameron is also expected to set outdetails of his EU reform demands.

    Closer home, there is no major data due from Japan throughthe coming week. In Australia, September and Q3 retail tradedata will be due on Wednesday, together with the Septembertrade balance. In New Zealand, we will receive the Q3 labourmarket reports on Wednesday. There will also be interest inthe latest GDT dairy auction and the first realtor reports onhousing market activity through October.

    Asia’s data calendar is packed with purchasingmanagers index (PMI) and CPI releases this week. Inaddition, Indonesia’s 3Q15 GDP (Bloomberg: 4.80% y/y;2Q15: 4.67% y/y), Malaysia’s September trade and October