INVESTMENT DAILY

类型：投资策略机构：凯基证券有限公司研究员：凯基证券研究所日期：2015-09-25

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 21,000 to 21,400today.

    Given the soft tone of US market couple with China PMI hit 6 years low, marketconcern the weaken China economy. Hong Kong stocks opened 267 points, losseswere expanded, saw the largest loss of 787 points. However, thanks to Europe stockmarket rebounded, Hong Kong Hang Seng index losses were narrowed, and closedat 21,302, fell 493 points. H-share index dropped 265 points to 9,570. Marketturnover increased to HK$92.6bn. Oil plays saw selling pressure, with CNOOC (883)plunged 4.6%. While Macau gambling stock dropped, with Galaxy (0027.HK) fell5%.

    US stock market rebounded on early Wednesday, after the sharp selloff on Tuesday.

    However, data indicating that China and US manufacturing activities continued toslow down, US stock market turned weak afterward. The Dow once fell more than100 points. The Dow and the Nasdaq closed 51 points (to 16,280) and 4 points (to4,753) lower respectively. Besides, although newly reported oil inventory dropped,oil price still fell 4.1% to US$44.5 per barrel.

    Moody downgrade mainland banking sector outlook to negative, Caixin PMI hitrecent year low as well as ADB cut China GDP forecast, it hurt market sentiment.

    However, Chairman Xi visit US has brought business opportunities to Sino-USenterprise. Hang Seng Index support shift to 21,000.

    Technical Analysis.

    Since late August onwards, Hang Seng Index tried to break through 22,000 pointsfor five times, but soon later the index fell below this level. On Wednesday it evenfell to 21,000 points. Although the index 10DMA(21,668 points)is still above20DMA(21,491 points), MACD bullish gap is narrowing, which means the marketatmosphere seems becoming worse again. If the index can stay above the firstsupport 20,800 points, we can still keep a bullish view on the index. The next supportwould be the lowest level in this month of 20,525 points. On the other hand, the firstresistance would be 22,000 points. HSI falls from 25,634 points in late July to20,525 points in mid-September, accounting for 5,109 points decline, thus 0.382time rebound target(22,477 points)would become the next resistance.