Markets Overview

类型：投资策略机构：大华银行有限公司研究员：大华银行研究所日期：2015-09-21

HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD

    Markets in Japan are closed until Thursday. Today’s European economicdocket will feature trade data in Spain; whilst in the US, it features theAugust existing home sales report Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart willspeak on the economy in Atlanta.

    In Asia today, Taiwan’s August export orders and Hong Kong’s AugustCPI and 2Q15 balance of payments are due for release in theafternoon. Taiwan’s export orders are expected to contract by 4.8%y/y in August, similar to the 5.0% drop in July and Hong Kong’s inflationis forecast to remain steady at 2.5% y/y in August.

    The data focus in Asia this week is the flash estimate of Caixin manufacturingPMI for China on Wednesday. Consensus is expecting animprovement in the manufacturing barometer to 47.6 in Septemberfrom 47.3 in August. The drop in August’s prelim reading had intensifiedthe sell-off in China’s stocks last month and this data will continueto be closely monitored for indications of growth prospects in China.

    Other important data include Taiwan’s August industrial production(consensus: -2.8% y/y; July: -2.99%) on Wednesday and Thailand’s Augustcustom trade data which will be released anytime from Thursday.

    In Singapore, all eyes will be on two important economic indicators asthey will provide us with a clearer picture to the possible policy actionsby the MAS in the upcoming monetary policy statement in October.

    First, the August consumer price index will be released on Wednesday,and headline inflation is expected to contract for the tenth consecutivemonth. Consensus is expecting a 0.6% y/y decline, compared to the0.40% y/y fall a month ago. What is more important will be the trend incore inflation. Core inflation looks to remain depressed and we expectit to rise at a 0.4% y/y rate, similar to previous month. On Friday, industrialproduction is expected to fall 4.6% y/y in August, extending theprevious month’s decline of 6.1% y/y.

    Malaysia’s FX reserves as at 15-September will be out on Tuesday(end-August: US$94.7 bn) and August CPI on Wednesday (Consensus:3.0% y/y; July: 3.3%).

    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the US is scheduled for 22-28September.

    A couple of holidays in Asia this week: Japan will be on holiday fromMonday to Wednesday. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are awayon Thursday, and the Philippines markets are closed on Friday.