INVESTMENT DAILY

类型：投资策略机构：凯基证券有限公司研究员：凯基证券研究所日期：2015-09-18

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 21,600 to 22,000 today.

    Hang Seng Index kept surging on Thursday morning, yet the index was dragged bymainland stock market as the latter slumped in the afternoon. The index closed at21,854 points, decreasing 112 points. HSCEI closed at 9,964 points, rising 59 points.

    Turnover was $89.9 billion. Tsingtao Brewery(0168)is expected to be involved inmassive industry M&A and restructuring, and it jumped 8.6%.

    Uncertainty of the first rate hike timing persistedFederal Reserve maintained interest rate unchanged last night. Besides, ChairmanYellen does not rule out to start rate hike in October meeting, uncertainty about thetiming of the first rate hike persisted. Moreover, Yellen expressed growing concernsabout sluggish growth in emerging markets, referring to China specifically. US stockmarket once more than 1% on Thursday after the Fed does not rate hike. However,profit taking pressure emerged, the Dow closed 65 points (to 16,675) lower while theNasdaq also narrowed its increase, rise 5 points only (to 4,894).

    Thanks to speculation that Chairman Xi could reach some agreement with USPresident Obama during next week visiting US, HK stock market performed wellrecently. However, strong profit taking pressure seen when HSI rose above 22,000.

    On the other hand, the Fed hold rate unchanged, Chairman Yellen does not rule outon rate hike in October, will bring more uncertainty toward global stock market.

    Technical Analysis.

    Hang Seng Index is located above 20DMA of 21,543 points for the second day. Theindex 14-day RSI is above 40 and MACD bullish gap keeps widening, indicating astabilizing market atmosphere. However, since the settlement of mainland stockfutures possibly exerts a significant impact to the index, thus the first support for theindex maintains at 10DMA(21,472 points), and the second support would be 20,800.

    For resistance, HSI falls from 25,634 points in late July to 20,583 points last Monday,accounting for 5,055 points decline. Since there’ s opportunities for further rebound,thus 0.382 time rebound target(22,510 points)would become the first resistance,while next resistance would be seen at 22,836 points(The bottom for the last fallingwave)