Macau gaming:GGR flat w-w,Sep tracking 31%y-y decline

类型：行业研究机构：野村国际(香港)有限公司研究员：野村国际(香港)研究所日期：2015-09-09

Visibility to growth remains poor, GGR flat w-w.

    Macau’s average daily gaming revenue (ADR), tables only, for 1-6September came in at HKD605mn, flat w-w and 10% higher than August’sADR of HKD550mn.

    If we assume ADR (tables only) of HKD530mn for the remainder of themonth, considering the slowdown before October Golden Week (vs. a MTDrun-rate of HKD605mn), full-month Sep-15 gross gaming revenue (GGR,tables only) would come in at HKD16.4bn, implying 4% decline m-m and a31% y-y decline (vs. a 37% YTD Aug-15 tables-only decline).

    Sector comment: With Macau stocks down over 20% in the past threeweeks, we believe the market has overreacted to the potential negativeeffect from slowing China macro and RMB depreciation. We recommendinvestors to concentrate on the more defensive Macau names. We reiterateour Buy rating on Sands China (1928 HK, Buy) with 30% potential upsideand 7% dividend yield. With weak industry growth visibility, we think it is tooearly to turn positive on growth names like MGM (2282 HK, Neutral) or Wynn(1128 HK, Neutral).