Markets Overview

类型：投资策略机构：大华银行有限公司研究员：大华银行研究所日期：2015-09-01

HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD

    This is a busy week as far as the US is concerned. Beginning on Tuesday,we will receive S&P/Case-Shiller home prices for June, Markit servicesPMI, new home sales for July and consumer confidence releases for August.

    On Wednesday, durable goods orders data for July will be rolledout. On Thursday, markets receive GDP (expect upward preliminary revisionsto around +3.0% for 2Q15), the usual initial jobless claims forthe week ending 22 August, as well as pending home sales releases forJuly. Finishing off the week on Friday, we will be receiving personal income/spending data for July and the University of Michigan consumersentiment releases for August.

    For the Eurozone, it is all about surveys this week and the spotlightwill fall on the EU Commission’s survey for August, which we expect toreveal a slight hardening in economic sentiment for the region. We willreceive the German IFO (Tuesday), French and Italian business confidence(Thursday and Friday respectively). July Eurozone money supplydata are also published, so is the preliminary estimate of GermanAugust HICP as well as German July import prices.

    This is a relatively quiet week for the UK, with focus likely to be on thepublication of the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday, which we expectwill be left intact at its preliminary estimate of 0.7% q/q, 2.6% y/y.

    Nationwide’s measure of house prices and GfK’s consumer confidencewill be released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Before that, theCBI will publish its August distributive trades survey on Wednesday.

    BoE Governor Carney speaks at the Kansas Fed symposium at JacksonHole on the hot topic of Global Inflation Dynamics.

    It is a heavy week for data in Japan, starting with the leading index today,the PPI and small business confidence index on Tuesday, followedby the jobless rate, retail trade and CPI data on Thursday.

    The key release in Australia is the Q2 CAPEX report on Thursday. Butcomments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will be watched. He willbe speaking at the National Reform summit organized by The Australianand The Australian Financial Review newspapers on Wednesday.

    Last but not least, New Zealand sees RBNZ inflation expectations onTuesday and July’s trade balance on Wednesday.

    Aside from US 2Q GDP report and housing data as well as the annualJackson Hole central bank conference, data releases in Asia thisweek will provide a look at the extent of softness in economic performancesin the second half of 2015 across the region as releases for Julybegin to trickle in. These include production data from Taiwan (Mon),Singapore (Wed), and Thailand (Fri), as well as external trade reportsfrom Thailand, HK, and Philippines (all on Tue). Philippines will releaseits 2Q GDP report on Thur.

    For today (Mon 24 Aug), Taiwan will kick off the morning with its Julyunemployment report at 830am, which is expected to see its joblessrate holding at 3.77% vs. 3.76% in Jun. Singapore’s CPI for July will bedue at 1pm, with disinflationary pressure expected at the headlinelevel at -0.2%y/y from -0.3% in June, though core inflation rate should accelerate slightly at 0.3%y/y from +0.2% in Jun. At 4pm, Taiwan’s industrial production for July isseen shrinking a further -2.04%y/y from -1.35% in Jun.