INVESTMENT DAILY

类型：投资策略机构：凯基证券有限公司研究员：凯基证券研究所日期：2015-07-17

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 24,800 to 25,200today.

    Hong Kong market retreated on Wednesday. China released that GDP grew 7% in2Q, which beats market estimates of 6.9%. It rose 7% in 1H15 which is in line withgovernment target. Other economic data also improved. HSI opened higher by 98points and retreated followed A share market, while it narrowed loss in the afternoon.

    HSI dropped 65 points to close at 25,056. HSCEI dipped 155 points to close at11,681. Market turnover reported HK$105. Broad market was mixed.

    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen told the Congress’s Financial ServicesCommittee that she expects to raise interest rates at some point this year. However,US stock market does not have much reaction to her comment, just traded withinnarrow range on Wednesday. The Dow and the Nasdaq closed 3 points (to 18,050)and 6 points (to 5,099) lower respectively. On the other hand, US dollar maintainedits strength, together with concern on Iran export supply will increase, crude oil pricedropped 3% to US$51.6 per barrel.

    A share turned weak on Wednesday. Besides, local market turnover also shrank tojust above HK$100bn, reflecting lack of momentum in the market while number ofstock advance to decline is 296 to 1306. Since market is still not stable, short termmarket risk is high, suggest to stay sideline.

    Technical Analysis.

    Hang Seng Index closed with hammer on Wednesday. Technically, market regained25,000, couple with MACD bearish gap narrowed, showing that momentumremained stable. Hang Seng index first support would be 25,000, while next supportwould be 24,500. For resistance, 26,000 would become the first resistance, whilenext resistance would be seen at 100DMA (26,252).