Macau gaming:Sept GGR tracking down 14-18% Y-Y

For the week ended 21 Sept, we believe average daily win was~MOP880mn (including slot revenues) with the sequential improvementprimarily driven by win rate normalization.

    Factoring in the expected slowdown preceding the October Golden Week,we estimate Sept GGR could be ~MOP23.8-24.3bn (or down 14-18% y-y),which is in line with consensus expectation. This would be the lowestmonthly GGR figure since September 2012.

    We estimate Sept mass revenues could be up ~10-14% y-y while VIPrevenues could be down ~28-32% y-y, with VIP win rate up against aneasier comp.

    Looking out to Oct, our checks indicate room bookings are solid but thereis uncertainty over the quality of the players. Even assuming a seasonalVIP ramp (albeit off of an expected low September base), Oct could still bedown high teens y-y.

    Market Share below: It appears hold normalized at Sands and SJM duringthe week, so we wouldn’t read too much into the market share.

    A lack of positive catalysts through year-end (and Q1’15, which also lap atough VIP comp) could keep investors on the sidelines, in our view. Weestimate current GGR trends imply 2014F GGR could be flattish vs.consensus range of -1 to 6%.