Macau gaming : Sept GGR could be down 13-16% Y-Y

For the MTD period ended 14 Sept, we believe average daily win was~MOP808mn (including slot revenues), which implied the second week ofSept may have slowed w-w. It appears Sands, and potentially SJM, mayhave held below average win rate during the period.

    Factoring in the impact from typhoon Kalmaegi and the expectedslowdown preceding the October Golden Week, we estimate Sept GGRcould be ~MOP24.2-25.1bn (or down 13-16% y-y), which is belowconsensus expectation of high single digit-to-low teens decline. This wouldbe the lowest monthly GGR figure since September 2012.

    We estimate Sept mass revenues could be up ~10-15% y-y while VIPrevenues could be down ~28-32% y-y, with VIP win rate up against aneasier comp.

    Looking out to Oct, our checks indicate room bookings are robust butthere is uncertainty over the quality of the players. Even assuming aseasonal VIP ramp (albeit off of an expected low September base), Octcould still be down high teens y-y.

    Market Share below: It appears Sands, and potentially SJM, may haveheld below average win rate during the period, so we wouldn’t read toomuch into the market share.

    A lack of positive catalysts through year-end (and Q1’15, which also lap atough VIP comp) could keep investors on the sidelines, in our view. Weestimate current GGR trends imply 2014F GGR could be flat to up 1%, vs.

    consensus range of 3