INVESTMENT DAILY

类型：投资策略机构：凯基证券有限公司研究员：凯基证券研究所日期：2014-09-10

The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade at 25,000 to 25,300 today

    China market closed on mid-Autumn holiday which cannot provide direction to HKmarket. The weaker than expected China import data once triggered Hang SengIndex to fall 160 points. However, HK stock market narrowed its gain afterward.

    The Hang Seng Index closed 50 points lower while H share index added 40 points.

    Market turnover was HK$56.4bn only which reflected investors prefer to staysideline. Alibaba offer price below market expectation, which depressed Tencent(0700.HK) share price by 1.7%.

    Given the latest released US economic data is strong, investors re-iterated itsconcerns of the Fed start to adjust interest rate upward earlier than expected. Besides,Apple released is new iPhone and iWatch, share price once rose 3.5% but finishedlower. Suffered from a series of negative news, US stock market declined onTuesday with the Dow and the Nasdaq finishing 98 points (to 17,014) and 40 points(to 4,552) lower respectively. Besides, concerns of interest rate hike, 10 year USTreasury yield rose 3 basis point to 2.50%.

    Suffered from global stock market weakness, HK stock market consolidated at25,000 recently. Looking ahead, US and A share market will continue to dominatelocal market trend. Besides, thanks to improved market liquidity, we expect buyinginterest on third and fourth liners to persist.

    Technical Analysis

    Hang Seng Index closed with hammer on Monday, Technically, Hang Seng indexstayed at above 25,000, couple with the MACDs bearish gap narrowed, showing thatmomentum remained strong. Hang Seng index first support would be 25,000, whilenext support would be 50DMA (24,350). For resistance, year’s high of 25,363 wouldbecome first resistance, while next resistance would be seen at 25,500.