Mexico:Taylor-made rate cuts
类型：投资策略 机构：法国巴黎银行 研究员：巴黎银行研究所 日期：2017-07-20
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We strongly believe Mexico’s interest rates will fall far lower next year than markets expect.
With inflation set to slip below the 4% policy ceiling next year, we disagree with theconsensus view of indefinitely flat interest rates near the current 7% mark.
In fact, we cut our already below-consensus end-2018 rate call to 5% from 6%, as ourTaylor-rule reaction-function modelling supports lower rates.
Risks to our call arise from US policy (the Fed and NAFTA) and domestic elections in 2018.
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