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Inside the Great Wall:Narrowing y-y growth continues in NBS 70cities price index

类型:行业研究  机构:德意志银行   研究员:Jason Ching,Franco Lam,Jeffrey Gao  日期:2017-05-26
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Narrowing y-y growth continues in NBS 70 cities price indexThe China National Bureau of Statistics has published the 70 cities price index,in which average growth in primary residential properties increased 9.63% y-y,narrowing from 10.05% in March and marking the fourth consecutive month ofdeclining growth. In monthly terms, a 0.72% m-m increase was recorded,flattish vs 0.7% in March. In the secondary market, the average price ofcommodity residential properties increased 7.78% y-y and 0.72% m-mrespectively, flattish compared to 7.79% and 0.7% respectively in the previousmonth. (NBS, Deutsche Bank)Deutsche Bank comment: Prices in the primary market continue to be cappedby administrative policies, while secondary ASP is under pressure as the marketbecomes less attractive than the primary market, and credit tightening couldhave slowed down transactions. We think credit tightening may spread to morehigh-tier cities, which would drag down property sales in 2Q17F. We areexpecting national sales to drop 5-10% y-y in 2017, due to the high base in2016, and also expecting a 5% price drop in T1/2 cities.

    Hong Kong Top NewsVictoria Skye conducts first launch, priced 10% lower than adjacent projectsThe first batch of 165 flats at Victoria Skye was officially launched yesterday. Theunits are located in Ocean Waves Towers 2 and 3, with a saleable floor area of335-851 sf, and are priced at HK$6.69-22.88m before discounts and HK$5.46-18.65m after a maximum of 18.5% payment discounts. The saleable ASP rangesbetween HK$14,900 psf and HK$21,900 psf and averages HK$17,900 psf, 10%lower than the first of batch at Vibe Centro launched in March. No first mortgagefinancing is provided by K&K Property, the developer, and second mortgagefinancing is capped at 25% of the sale price. (HKEJ, Apple Daily)

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